January 2011. results

-69 pips

-27 %

Depleted account so big percentage swings. I didn't have positive month since May last year if we don't count in December's +6 pips. It's interesting to me how I still have will to do it despite my results.

-14 pips

Trading angry is not recomended. I'm angry. I'm trading bad. Knowing what not to do and not doing it isn't the same thing.

- 6 pips Theater mode trading

I can't describe how all those stops at the beginning hurt. It was like some blade going through my chest, no wonder that I try to avoid that at all cost. Marked yellow at the bottom chart are places where market changed direction. It was almost impossible to make profit in opposite direction. There are not so many places to go in direction of market, at least I don't find them easy to enter. So it's more of swing trading market, just hold. But I'm not good at that either. On two trades I moved stops, they didn't get hit. At 10:30 trade I bailed out for no reason and then fight up direction with no luck. I don't know what to think about all this. It's like some kind of theater. It amuse me but it's far from business. Worst point I was at -38 half size pips finishing at -12.
It would be probably different if at first I could close those trades manually when it wasn't going down anymore. By letting full stops and entering again and again I was just emotional. But I can't say that this isn't different then moving stop and letting stop run, or averaging down. It's marginally better. The thing is if you are emotional, stubborn, want to be right then you will get hurt anyway. This is just trying to minimize the damage with those small stops. The real job is getting less egotistical.

+ 6 pips

I can't complain about the day, it reflects my current abilities. I didn't trade it the best way it should be done, but those are my current abilities. I used limit order on my first trade and got better price that way on a breakout. It wasn't break out up day, but range around the top. All my actions were more aiming to break out price action. I was already in preparation to write this post when sudden drop came in eur/usd after 11:20. It was ok to try going with the momentum but there I became emotional because I was just losing pips I gathered before. In yellow are marked problematic trades where I had some profit but I failed to take it or to get out at break even. I was married to idea that momentum down will resume. Also I wanted to recoup lost and I wasn't satisfied with partial gain. Well that led me from +18 half size pips to -4 at start of my last entry. At last I got my big winner and I finished at +12 half size pips.

+1 pip Addicted to emotions

This all is so unnecessary but it seams it gives me emotional high. Be it bad or good emotions, just bring them on. So I trade to feel heightened emotions.
Highest point was +16 half size pips.

-1 pip What's up and what's new?

Hi there traders and readers. Today -2 half size pips in one tiny trade. Well I decided to slash down my stop loss considerably to the -5 pips, adding spread it's -6 on eur/usd or -7 on gbp/usd. That -5 pips today would be in half size pips, so even smaller then it sounds. I guess that I will feel moronic if I try to move a stop when it's set at such low level. I just can't trust myself much and have to act accordingly. So now with such low R everything is changed. One one hand it's enough to catch six pips and R is there. On another side I can't just enter because it looks like it will go one way soon. I need to be exact. So like trade today, lot's of wait and then nothing, just to go down after few minutes when I wasn't there. I don't complain about it. The thing is I accept trading this way, I even like it. It will bring changes and they are needed. Things couldn't work like they were set up before. I will have to work more, and why not, and accept smaller targets.

Neke from Elitetrader

Every Saturday last few years my weekly ritual is to check up how neke's week went by over at elitetrader.com. For few years neke is reporting his ups and downs (last year big down at start) in trading. It's not a smooth ride, lot's off problems with averaging, that's why I started to relate with him in the first place.
He opened a new thread for 2011. where he in opening post shared some of the facts that I didn't know. I took a screenshot of part that's really interesting. Apparently after being unsuccessful for five years slowly losing deposit after deposit in total of 54k until of Nov of 2004. At that point his account was at 5300$. Six years from then net stats are around 600k in withdrawals and 360k of current balance. All that from those 5.3k. Off course his prior trading and losses had educational value that resulted with that.
So this is pretty much inspiring for me to see how bad p&l can turn into the good one's after all.




I can also add that Oanda sent yearly update in which they state

As part of the new CFTC rules, retail forex brokers must publish every quarter the percentage of customer accounts that were profitable. At OANDA, 48% of customer accounts were profitable in the third quarter of 2010, and 44% in the fourth quarter. We had by far the highest proportion of profitable accounts of any U.S. retail forex dealer.

If there are indeed so many profitable accounts than it's a shame not being on that side.

-60 pips Losing is easy

At my third trade I was aware that it's breaking -25 pips max loss for a day. I gave it space thinking maybe it will work. Result is 30 pips bigger loss. Every time situation like this looks like exception that you should take and bend the rules. I don't even have an opinion about following trades that I took, they are usual emotional reactions trying to do a quick fix. I trade full margin lately so loss of 60 pips it takes at least 80 pips to recover.

Again and again I fail at discipline. Bigger problem then taking losses is I think acting (trading) when I don't have full conviction that I should take a trade. I trade for sake of trading or from idea that if I don't trade I can't make money. So I take marginal trades, don't wait for real setups and market situations that suits me, probably because out of fear of missing out. When things don't work emotions kick in, from there bending rules and finally blow up.

What are situation that I should trade? When I think that price will move in my direction immediately. Fast market, runaway market. Then if it's not going that way but other I take loss pretty much quickly as I should. That's the only kind of market that I believe that I maybe have a chance. Other stuff just don't work for me in long term, I don't work for it. There are no such situations all the time but chances for trading are there. So I trade from day to day this setup or another and slowly get complacent in doing wrong thing for me. So fast markets, quick trades or ironclad discipline. I fail at discipline of taking stops over and over again, so I really don't have conviction that it's solution for me. Maybe it's easier to wait for right market, that's hard but maybe a bit less.

-1 pip Trading out of boredom

Nothing's really going on and I'm bored by watching and then I trade. Not really wise. Glad that in the end I cut my loss from -12 to -1. At my 11:40 trade I practiced discipline by not acting on what my emotions were saying. I had many wishes to close it and I didn't, I just felt and ignored it. Well it was really boring session since I tried that.

+2 pips glad that I'm finishing day on the positive note

Chop in a range. I was trying to pick up direction with not much luck. At the end up side break came more of reaction for a failure to break lower. Again staying too long in a bad trade. I refused two occasions to get out or lighten up. I'm happy that day finished positive after being at -12 pips.

+ 4 pips with too much trading

Little bit too much trading. End of first chart +9 half size pips, end of second -7 half size pips and finally just when I went to write this blog post volatility came and I captured some to end at +8 half size pips.
On those big red trades at second chart I failed to exit loss properly.

Break even day

Interesting day, frustrating also but not that much. I continue with my obsession with letting profits run not because it is good trading but because I want to capture big gain. I had winners all over the place but I didn't take anything home. Good thing is that I didn't lose my nerve by all this near misses. Maybe I over extended with my last trades trying to catch bottom, it could have been costly if price continued lower. Trades were half size.