Long time no see

It's a time for an update. As you know this is fifth year that I write this blog, actual trading sometime longer, but here is documented my serious attempt at this business. Then you know that I'm basically unprofitable, it's enough to visit my results label. I'm also stubborn. Sometimes its bad in making trading mistakes, and good in not giving up. I'm really slow learner and it's taking me ages to implement steps that I schedule for myself.

I updated missing days in my blog of course only after really good last day so I don't have to only blush in shame.

Right now I'm fighting battle with myself on maximum daily stop loss. It's going on for some time now. My declared number is fifteen pips. My stops are six pips, so about 2.5R. Usually I get emotional around daily stop level so I go for one more trade, then another. Occasionally realization that I broke my rules bring me in revenge and extreme emotions mode. Then I enter successive trades in short span of time losing six by six by six pips in rage. That's the present.

At least I can say that I learned some lessons so far, so it's not only bad. First I had problems with entering in direction of the trend, in my first years. I was only counter trend trader. Which is common and very debilitating trading behavior at many beginning traders. So much is left on the table, waiting out while price is moving in a trend just to get that elusive reversal. Only if you get it and it develops in new trend you are long gone out and looking again for another reversal. I succeeded in changing myself and going with the trend, or more accurate in direction of a breakout. It took me long time but I'm proud of that step because it was first step that made at least some difference.

After that came hurdle of averaging down when in loss. It was awful. I would try to escape every loss by averaging down. So I had many positive days with small wins made with averaging when they should be losing days. Add to that winning days from the start and it all looked promising. Only to face one day when trend is strong, there are no bounces and I'm on wrong side. Those days would take weeks of effort and apparent success and put me deep in the red. I didn't know how to stop myself. Only HPT's advice worked to have in account only enough margin to trade with one position. So I basically started to trade full margin.
Well after that step my averaging break in discipline transformed in widening my stop. That was disaster also. So not long time ago I changed setting on my chart to make invisible my stop level making it impossible to just drag and drop line on my chart that I did until then. So now I'm at that phase. My discipline problem transformed in overtrading easily making thirty or so trades. Mostly losing ones, waiting for big winner that will wipe out losers.
So now I'm in that step trying to stop my day after reasonable loss, reasonable based on what I gain on a good day.

It's all discipline problem, same problem from averaging until now. I believe it's basically avoiding acceptance of being losing trader. Because what if I follow all the rules and still remain to be unsuccessful and unprofitable. It's defeat so I basically chose not to face it. Instead of being losing trader and still trade despite of my unsuccess and basically just learn.It would be more beneficial then this hide and seek game with my own discipline.

Lately I lost interest in blogging regularly mostly because of my terrible performance. It's embarrassing posting daily how horrible I'm doing. Also google cut me out from their adsense program so that materialistic motive was gone. I would like to thank for all the clicks in last four years that transcribed in around $1800. Maybe now when I stopped earning from talking about trading I can start to earn from trading.  :)

 In last year there is one other matter that brought me big frustration and that is change in market behavior on small time frames that I use. Moves are shorter on sub 1min charts, there is much less follow through after signal for me. So stops are much more frequent. I learned to trade specifically and I'm not good at all in different trading environment.

In my recent trading last few months after some good head start I started going in to losing spiral that stopped after I lost basically all what was left in my trading account. I lost steadily thought the year losing 84% until August. Then with some gambling for fun I doubled what was in account. Then I doubled it again to cut loss to around 32%. At the end of the October I broke down losing 80% bringing me back to August levels where I no longer consider it serious trading because of lack of relevant size of trades. I was totally depressed and probably hit the bottom because I started browsing through all my old trading materials that I read long time ago looking for a spark, looking for something. I didn't found anything new but my resolution to continue by any means be it rereading old books and articles resurrected my trading spirit. It was down and out and few days later it was like what can I do but continue from wherever I know. I didn't put any more money in account. Somehow I can strive for good trading using demo like account, so let it be for now.
Even if I'm making Scalp and Swing frustrated by my stubbornness I continue with my quest. If Solfest can fight his mut how can I sit and do nothing. If MBA can do all what he is doing with serious money I have to keep on. Finally if A Pip Throwing Party can scalp so amazingly there is a real chance for success in scalping.

Radical forex move

Again forex day when I can say that I didn't know that this was even possible. I was trading eur/chf because of it's bullishness and made nice profit. Minute later after the radical move I was able to enter eur/usd and make some profit there as well.

Oanda for some time had hiccup and didn't update price nor chart on eur/chf betwen 1.1760 and 1.2100

+106 pips

Forex brokers spread comparison

I've had valid comment and question from PRD trader about brokers on last post. I answered that Oanda can't be beat in spread for small trader. Then I realized that it was true before but is it now? So I look around and found nice web aplication by FX Intelligence for live spread comparison for various forex brokers.



On first view Oanda looks totally uncompetitive. But you need to get little deeper to see is that so. For example MB trading that is known broker (at least for me) have spread plus two way routing fee. It's great for someone that uses limit orders, preferably on in and out of position because you get paid back on limit orders and you lower your cost. I do not, so Oanda is still better. Then I decided to check FXOpen that had very competitive spread in comparison table. But on their site they state that spread is fixed to 2 pips on eur/usd. And guess what I read something there that induced me to write this post. It states: "Scalping With limitations. (1) Stop Loss, Take Profit and Pending Orders 10 pips or more away from the current price; 2) Most of the trades must be open for more than 1 minute".

No comment needed.



In comparison with big forex brokers like FXCM and Forex.com Oanda have best spread. In last 12 days average for normal hours 1.3 vs. 2.2 or 2.8.



At the end of my investigation I found out that you can chose to show data with commission included on that site. Then Oanda is around the top of the list even if spread now in Europe morning is 1.4 pips. Some other brokers have spread higher then 4, 5 or 6 pips. Go figure.

While I wrote this post spread came to 1.1 pips and Oanda is at the top if we exclude Alpari Direct with Currenex, that is certainly not broker for me.



So conclusion is that I'm pleased with Oanda from the first day and that I'm grateful that there is broker like that. I can scalp, spread is tight, I like their charts, they are fair and transparent.

Adapt or die

It's really hard for me to trade lately. Market is having nonexistent range in my time slot. So scalping that I'm used to isn't really possible. Failed moves eat all the winnings, winning moves are so small. Some part of the move is signal, something goes on spread, when I get in it's close to being over. That's when I guess direction correctly.

I can trade in ideal day from 9 until 12.30. In below charts it's shown how small range was last week at that time. On closer look those 30 and 40 pips ranges are 10-15 pips ranges most of the time. Adapt or die, I didn't.

Oanda spread

I was a bit late on that drop through 2200.

+19 pips




I always find amazing order that can be found on small time frames. Check this bounce on 10sec chart, how it look so precise.




Oanda is amazing also. Market is in totally sensitive situation where big movements can occur and they drop spread to 0.6 pips on eur/usd.

Forces of nature